The international
climate negotiations have just wrapped up in Lima, Peru. This meeting was to set
key directions for the new international climate agreement in next December
in Paris. In Paris countries are to agree on a new international climate
agreement that will require much deeper action by all countries.
As I said in
my final statement:
"Here's the good news from the Lima talks: Countries around
the world now fully get that early next year they must commit to ambitious
reductions in climate pollution and bold measures to slow global warming. Most
key countries are laying the groundwork at home for more aggressive commitments
to cut their carbon pollution. There is no question about this point anymore.
It's time to set aside half-measures, empty promises and squabbling. The
progress from Lima must be translated into real action by the time the world
convenes in Paris. Only together can we avoid the worst impacts of climate
change, and for the sake of our children and future generations we must."
Here
is what was agreed in Lima, the underlying political current, and how these
dynamics set us in motion for a strong agreement in Paris if countries choose
to rise to the opportunity.
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| Sign for the Paris COP21 at the Lima Negotiations, NRDC |
Early next year countries know they have to come forward
with bold and ambitious commitments to further reduce their emissions. One year ago we were fighting over whether or not
countries would propose targets early enough to make Paris a success. In the
agreement and the corridors it is clear that major emitters are laying the
groundwork for a proposed target. Europe,
U.S.,
and China
- which account for over 50 percent of the world's emissions - have set the
tone and taken away any uncertainty when they announced new emissions reduction
targets. In Lima more signs emerged from big players. We heard about the
preparations in countries like Chile,
Brazil, South Korea, Mexico,
and other countries. The agreed decision sets the contours of these proposed
targets as countries: reaffirmed the aim to propose their emissions reduction
targets early next year, agreed that their targets must be on a trajectory to
helping us ensure that we address climate change, and that they are more
aggressive than their previous commitments (a "progression beyond the current
undertaking").
I suspect that lots of leaders will be
calling their contemporaries to say: "come on President what you are proposing
isn't serious enough". We'll need a political push from leaders to ensure that
countries propose strong post-2020 climate targets.
Countries know that they can't "fudge the numbers" as
everyone will be looking at the guts of their target. There was an important push to ensure that countries
provide a basic set of information when they propose their post-2020 targets. This
has important climate implications as there is a lot of carbon pollution at
stake if a country proposes an unclear commitment. This was one of the main
issues here in Lima, so all leaders are on record that they can't play games
with their targets. The Lima decision sets out a minimum set of information
that must be included when a country proposes their target next year including:
- quantifiable information
on the reference point or base year (e.g., is it compared to 2005, if it is a
reduction from business as usual what is the basis of that number, etc); - time frames and/or
periods for the commitment (e.g., 2025, 2030); - which sectors and
greenhouse gas are included (i.e., "scope and coverage"); - the "assumptions
and methodological approaches" (i.e., if you have a greenhouse gas intensity
target what is the assumed gross domestic product, or what assumed business as
usual did you use); - emissions
including land-use emissions and sinks (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions and
"removals"); and - indication of how
the target from the country is in line with the level of cuts necessary to
address climate change and how it is "fair and ambitious" (i.e., does it pass
the "laugh and science" test).
We need action today and tomorrow, not just two decades
from now. The small-island states, African
countries, and least developed countries are calling for urgent action to
reduce emissions. They are on the front lines of climate change as they are
witnessing the impacts of climate change and every year of delay will take a
massive toll on their citizens. This is why they were pushing so hard to ensure
that all of the attention wasn't focused on what countries do after 2020. We
are leaving Lima with a mixed bag on this issue:
- The European
Union, U.S., and New Zealand underwent the first "multilateral assessment to
ask the basic question: "are you on track for your 2020 climate target". The
process put these countries in the spotlight and the key conclusion is that the
EU is on track for its target and the U.S. is on a path but has to finalize
some elements of the U.S. Climate Action plan (see here for one analysis of the
US and EU). - Unclear on the
need for strong 2025 climate targets, but a
growing group of countries including Brazil, key Latin American countries,
small-island states, U.S., and South Africa are pushing for 2025 climate
targets in the Paris agreement. In Copenhagen countries agreed to targets
10 years in advance (i.e., in 2009 for 2020 climate targets), but now some
countries are pushing for targets 15 years later (e.g., 2030 targets agreed in
2015). Hopefully countries will get the message and prepare to finalize strong
targets for 2025 in Paris. - Lima
launched to a new "NAZCA portal" that showcases the groundswell of climate
action. Global leaders from national and subnational governments, the
private sector, and civil society groups discussed specific steps each can take
to scale-up action on climate change. We will need to build upon these growing
numbers of actions to ensure that we bend the near-term emissions trend in line
with what science demands and key
countries are calling for.
Providing financial support to developing countries to help
further reduce emissions and address adaptation will be a critical component of
the international effort. Coming out of Lima, the new Green Climate Fund
(GCF) has received pledges of more than $10 billion in funding. These pledges
will help ensure that the GCF isn't an "empty shell" with a great structure but
no resources to begin immediately to help reduce emissions and build more
resilience to climate impacts. What further steps countries take to mobilize
even great resources through public and private resources will be an important
point of contention as we go into Paris. We leave Lima with a very important down
payment in the GCF which has been a major ask of key developing countries for
years.
We begin next year focused on negotiating the new legal
agreement. In Lima, countries began to articulate
the outlines of agreement to be reached next December as reflect in the "elements
text". This document is too long and has too many options, but countries
can now focus clearly on turning the ideas into a final legal agreement next
December. We have our work cut out for us, but the ball is slowly rolling in
the right direction.
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The agreement in Lima is a mixed bag,
but the seeds for Paris agreement have been planted. It is a diverse group of
plants and it will need to be watered and cultivated, but with the right gardeners
it can grow stronger. World leaders know that they must propose bold and
ambitious emissions reduction targets early next year, that they can't fudge
the numbers, and that they must be prepared to defend the aggressiveness of
their effort.
Humanity deserves nothing less than the full
leadership of the world's governments, CEOs, cities, and citizens. Next year
will be the moment to show which side of history they want to be on.